2028 forecast by state
On this page you can find Benefitra's forecast of the average 2028 small group health insurance renewal for each state and DC, and also the average per year over 2029 to 2032. Across the whole country the 2028 forecast averages out to 10.7%, although it varies from state to state, from 7.9% in Iowa at the low end up to 13.5% in New Mexico and Ohio at the top. After 2028 we expect most states to drift back toward their own six year averages. For the country as a whole, that means 8.3% a year for 2029 to 2032. At that rate, $10,000 in 2027 health insurance premiums grows to about $15,230 by 2032.
All of these forecasts are produced by the Benefitra Renewal Index. We will freeze an official version and then score it against actual filings every year. And we will publish the misses. In 33 states the 2027 premium rates are still at the proposed stage, so this page is updated weekly until they become final.
Key findings
- Highest 2028 forecasts. New Mexico at 13.5%, Ohio at 13.5%, Arizona at 13.2%, North Carolina at 13.1%, and West Virginia at 13.1%.
- Lowest 2028 forecasts. Iowa at 7.9%, Mississippi at 8.3%, South Dakota at 8.4%, Vermont at 8.4%, and Wyoming at 8.9%.
- Likely range. Every state gets a range that starts 3.0 points below its forecast and goes up to 6.0 points above it (around the national figure, that is 7.7% to 16.7%). Looking back, renewals came in higher than the forecast more often than they came in lower.
- Five years. If you go by the national average, health insurance premiums end up rising by about 52.3% from 2027 to 2032.
States still on proposed 2027 rates
None of these 33 states has published its final rates yet, so for 2027 we are using the rates that insurers proposed, and you'll see them marked as Proposed in the table. We will keep updating this page weekly until the 2027 rates are final in every state, and each of those updates becomes a new dated version (see changelog).
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.
Disclosures
Conflict of interest. Benefitra is a licensed insurance brokerage. We may earn commissions or fees when clients buy coverage. We also sell and give advice on Taft-Hartley, PEO and captive arrangements, which are all alternatives to fully insured health insurance plans, and Benefitra paid for this research.
Not a quote or opinion. What you are looking at are statistical forecasts of state averages that we built from public rate data. They are not a quote, they are not a guarantee of any renewal rate or outcome, and they are not an actuarial opinion either.
AI use. We had help from AI tools in making this page (Grok by xAI for research and drafting, and Claude by Anthropic for quality control and editing), and Sam Newland, CFP®, went through and checked every figure before it was published.
State by state forecast table
You can click on any column heading to sort the table, and the rows shaded amber are the ones that use proposed 2027 rates rather than final ones.
| Alabama AL | Proposed 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.0% to 15.0% | 6.2% | 38.7% | $13,870 |
| Alaska AK | Proposed 17.4% | 10.4% | 7.4% to 16.4% | 7.6% | 48.0% | $14,800 |
| Arizona AZ | Proposed 19.9% | 13.2% | 10.2% to 19.2% | 10.3% | 67.6% | $16,760 |
| Arkansas AR | Proposed 9.1% | 9.6% | 6.6% to 15.6% | 6.8% | 42.6% | $14,260 |
| California CA | Proposed 9.5% | 9.8% | 6.8% to 15.8% | 6.7% | 42.3% | $14,230 |
| Colorado CO | Final 14.0% | 11.4% | 8.4% to 17.4% | 9.1% | 57.8% | $15,780 |
| Connecticut CT | Final 15.1% | 11.4% | 8.4% to 17.4% | 9.9% | 62.5% | $16,250 |
| Delaware DE | Final 18.0% | 12.8% | 9.8% to 18.8% | 8.9% | 58.6% | $15,860 |
| District of Columbia DC | Final 11.5% | 10.3% | 7.3% to 16.3% | 8.6% | 53.4% | $15,340 |
| Florida FL | Proposed 12.0% | 10.7% | 7.7% to 16.7% | 8.7% | 54.5% | $15,450 |
| Georgia GA | Proposed 16.4% | 11.7% | 8.7% to 17.7% | 10.7% | 67.7% | $16,770 |
| Hawaii HI | Proposed 13.9% | 10.7% | 7.7% to 16.7% | 6.9% | 44.6% | $14,460 |
| Idaho ID | Proposed 11.2% | 10.5% | 7.5% to 16.5% | 8.8% | 54.8% | $15,480 |
| Illinois IL | Proposed 17.4% | 12.2% | 9.2% to 18.2% | 9.5% | 61.3% | $16,130 |
| Indiana IN | Final 14.5% | 10.7% | 7.7% to 16.7% | 8.4% | 52.8% | $15,280 |
| Iowa IA | Proposed 4.2% | 7.9% | 4.9% to 13.9% | 4.6% | 29.2% | $12,920 |
| Kansas KS | Proposed 10.4% | 10.5% | 7.5% to 16.5% | 9.7% | 60.0% | $16,000 |
| Kentucky KY | Proposed 10.7% | 11.8% | 8.8% to 17.8% | 11.7% | 74.0% | $17,400 |
| Louisiana LA | Final 11.9% | 10.5% | 7.5% to 16.5% | 8.4% | 52.6% | $15,260 |
| Maine ME | Final 13.5% | 12.0% | 9.0% to 18.0% | 9.3% | 59.8% | $15,980 |
| Maryland MD | Final 10.2% | 9.3% | 6.3% to 15.3% | 6.8% | 42.2% | $14,220 |
| Massachusetts MA | Final 11.0% | 10.0% | 7.0% to 16.0% | 7.8% | 48.5% | $14,850 |
| Michigan MI | Proposed 9.8% | 10.3% | 7.3% to 16.3% | 8.6% | 53.4% | $15,340 |
| Minnesota MN | Proposed 14.2% | 11.7% | 8.7% to 17.7% | 8.8% | 56.5% | $15,650 |
| Mississippi MS | Proposed 3.7% | 8.3% | 5.3% to 14.3% | 3.9% | 26.2% | $12,620 |
| Missouri MO | Proposed 16.5% | 12.1% | 9.1% to 18.1% | 10.3% | 65.9% | $16,590 |
| Montana MT | Final 18.0% | 12.3% | 9.3% to 18.3% | 9.7% | 62.6% | $16,260 |
| Nebraska NE | Proposed 13.2% | 11.4% | 8.4% to 17.4% | 9.3% | 59.0% | $15,900 |
| Nevada NV | Final 12.3% | 11.1% | 8.1% to 17.1% | 9.1% | 57.4% | $15,740 |
| New Hampshire NH | Proposed 15.2% | 11.3% | 8.3% to 17.3% | 8.2% | 52.5% | $15,250 |
| New Jersey NJ | Proposed 18.5% | 13.0% | 10.0% to 19.0% | 11.8% | 76.5% | $17,650 |
| New Mexico NM | Proposed 20.1% | 13.5% | 10.5% to 19.5% | 12.0% | 78.6% | $17,860 |
| New York NY | Final 8.0% | 10.2% | 7.2% to 16.2% | 9.9% | 60.8% | $16,080 |
| North Carolina NC | Proposed 20.6% | 13.1% | 10.1% to 19.1% | 8.9% | 59.1% | $15,910 |
| North Dakota ND | Proposed 11.4% | 10.1% | 7.1% to 16.1% | 7.6% | 47.6% | $14,760 |
| Ohio OH | Proposed 18.0% | 13.5% | 10.5% to 19.5% | 13.7% | 89.7% | $18,970 |
| Oklahoma OK | Proposed 17.0% | 12.4% | 9.4% to 18.4% | 10.1% | 65.2% | $16,520 |
| Oregon OR | Final 15.5% | 11.8% | 8.8% to 17.8% | 9.2% | 59.0% | $15,900 |
| Pennsylvania PA | Final 10.3% | 10.1% | 7.1% to 16.1% | 7.0% | 44.3% | $14,430 |
| Rhode Island RI | Proposed 9.7% | 10.8% | 7.8% to 16.8% | 8.4% | 53.0% | $15,300 |
| South Carolina SC | Proposed 8.7% | 9.6% | 6.6% to 15.6% | 6.7% | 42.1% | $14,210 |
| South Dakota SD | Final 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.4% to 14.4% | 5.1% | 32.3% | $13,230 |
| Tennessee TN | Proposed 12.2% | 10.9% | 7.9% to 16.9% | 8.5% | 53.7% | $15,370 |
| Texas TX | Proposed 18.9% | 12.7% | 9.7% to 18.7% | 10.0% | 65.0% | $16,500 |
| Utah UT | Final 10.4% | 10.1% | 7.1% to 16.1% | 8.1% | 50.3% | $15,030 |
| Vermont VT | Final 4.3% | 8.4% | 5.4% to 14.4% | 8.3% | 49.1% | $14,910 |
| Virginia VA | Final 10.7% | 10.3% | 7.3% to 16.3% | 7.7% | 48.4% | $14,840 |
| Washington WA | Proposed 16.4% | 12.1% | 9.1% to 18.1% | 9.8% | 62.9% | $16,290 |
| West Virginia WV | Proposed 19.7% | 13.1% | 10.1% to 19.1% | 9.5% | 62.6% | $16,260 |
| Wisconsin WI | Proposed 15.7% | 11.7% | 8.7% to 17.7% | 9.7% | 61.8% | $16,180 |
| Wyoming WY | Proposed 9.8% | 8.9% | 5.9% to 14.9% | 7.0% | 42.7% | $14,270 |
How to read the 2027 basis column. Final means we are using the final 2027 small group average that came from the state regulator or from SERFF. Proposed is the enrollment weighted proposed rate from RateReview.HealthCare.gov, and the cell shows the 2027 rate. As for the likely range, it runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of past misses. For the five year cumulative, we compound the 2028 forecast with four years at the 2029 to 2032 average. In the last column you can see what $10,000 of 2027 annual health insurance premium would turn into by 2032 if every renewal landed right on forecast. The source for all of this is Benefitra calculations using the CMS Rate Review PUF (PY2015 to 2026) and 2027 state and RateReview data.
Forecast chart
This chart ranks the 2028 small group health plan renewal forecast for each state from highest to lowest, and it adds the likely range. It contains four series. The first is the 2028 forecast on final 2027 rates, and the second is the 2028 forecast on proposed 2027 rates. The other two are the likely range and the national average.
The 2028 small group renewal forecast for each state, ranked from highest to lowest and shown with the likely range. Benefitra, v1.0-preview.
Sources for the 18 final 2027 rates
| State | Final 2027 small group average | Source | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 14.0% | State insurance regulator announcement of final 2027 small group average (source) | 2026-09-28 |
| Connecticut | 15.1% | State insurance regulator announcement of final 2027 small group average (source) | 2026-09-21 |
| Delaware | 18.0% | SERFF final filings, reported by ACA Signups (source) | 2026-09-21 |
| District of Columbia | 11.5% | State insurance regulator announcement of final 2027 small group average (source) | 2026-09-28 |
| Indiana | 14.5% | State insurance regulator announcement of final 2027 small group average (source) | 2026-09-21 |
| Louisiana | 11.9% | SERFF final filings, reported by ACA Signups. Louisiana has no prior approval authority, so these are final posted filings (source) | 2026-09-28 |
| Maine | 13.5% | State insurance regulator announcement of final 2027 small group average (source) | 2026-09-21 |
| Maryland | 10.2% | State insurance regulator announcement of final 2027 small group average (source) | 2026-09-28 |
| Massachusetts | 11.0% | Massachusetts Division of Insurance final 2027 small group breakout (merged market), reported by ACA Signups 2026-09-04. (source) | 2026-09-21 |
| Montana | 18.0% | SERFF final filings, reported by ACA Signups (source) | 2026-09-28 |
| Nevada | 12.3% | Nevada Division of Insurance final 2027 filings, reported by ACA Signups 2026-09-17. (source) | 2026-09-21 |
| New York | 8.0% | State insurance regulator announcement of final 2027 small group average (source) | 2026-09-21 |
| Oregon | 15.5% | State insurance regulator announcement of final 2027 small group average (source) | 2026-09-21 |
| Pennsylvania | 10.28% | Pennsylvania Insurance Department final 2027 small group average, published 2026-09-18. (source) | 2026-09-21 |
| South Dakota | 8.3% | SERFF final filings, reported by ACA Signups (source) | 2026-09-28 |
| Utah | 10.4% | Utah Insurance Department final 2027 filings, reported by ACA Signups 2026-09-17. (source) | 2026-09-21 |
| Vermont | 4.3% | Vermont GMCB approved modified filings (BCBSVT 1.2%, MVP 6.2%), 2026-08. (source) | 2026-09-21 |
| Virginia | 10.7% | SERFF final filings, reported by ACA Signups (source) | 2026-09-28 |
How we will score the forecast
Most health insurance renewal forecasts never get checked by anyone, so we are building our own accountability into this one. Using the Benefitra Renewal Index, we put out predictions for each state covering the next one to five years, and then every year we hold them up against the actual results.
The official forecast is frozen
There are two things that can trigger the freeze, and whichever one happens first is the one that counts. (a) The week in which the 2027 rates have become final in every state. (b) The date when the first 2028 small group filings become public. Once that happens the weekly updates stop and the official scored version gets frozen, and from then on it is never edited but only scored.
Every version is kept
Every time we update the page each week, that update becomes a new, dated version (v1.0, v1.1, and so on). Each of them gets its own row in the changelog listing which states moved from proposed to final and how their forecasts changed. We also keep the older versions listed along with the SHA-256 fingerprint of their data file, so that anyone can check that nothing was changed afterward.
Scoring once a year
Once CMS has published the 2028 small group rate filings, we score every state on the miss (actual minus forecast) and on whether or not the actual came in inside the likely range, and we also score the national error and bias. After that we compare the result with two simple benchmarks, last year's state change and the state's six year average. For 2029 through 2032 we repeat the same thing as each year's filings come out.
Interim tracking, quarterly. As the 2028 filings come in state by state, we will post interim tracking wherever they are public (SERFF or the state insurance department). Keep in mind that the interim figures are proposed rates, and we label them that way.
We publish the misses
We post every single score on this page. That includes the misses, which get the same prominence as the hits. If we ever end up changing the method because of something we learn, the change will come with a written reason, backtest evidence and a changelog entry, and the frozen forecast will still be scored as it was published.
Method, limitations and data
Method in brief
The method we use is the Benefitra Renewal Index, which is set out in full in the Renewal Index paper, and you will see the same numbers in the Benefitra funding simulator as well.
Data. For each state we take the enrollment weighted small group health plan renewal rate change for 2015 to 2026, which comes from the CMS Rate Review public use files, and then we add 2027 on top of that. Where the state has published a final average we use it, and where it hasn't we use the proposed average.
2028. Half of this number comes from the state's own recent trend (an exponentially weighted average that puts equal weight on the latest year and on the history before it), and the other half comes from the same trend worked out for the rest of the country (enrollment weighted, with the state left out).
2029 to 2032. For each of these years we simply use the state's own six year average for 2022 to 2027.
Likely range. The likely range covers the 10th to 90th percentile of the past misses for this rule, which in practice works out to 3.0 points below the 2028 forecast up to 6.0 points above it.
Backtest results
All of the backtests were run from September 27 to 29, 2026. We tested the rule out of sample on the CMS state panel (forecast origins 2020 to 2025), and then we checked the multi year shape against the AHRQ MEPS-IC small employer premium series. When we blended the state trend with the national trend, year one error dropped from 4.17 to 3.96 points (root mean square). The blend also came out ahead in 6 of 6 test years. Once you get to four to six years out, none of the methods we tried was able to reliably beat the six year average. Every method we tested also forecast too low for 2020 to 2026, by about 1.3 points in year one, and when we tried adjusting for that the adjustment did not survive testing, so instead we show it in the range, which is weighted to the upside.
Limitations
Small group ACA community rated market only. In most states this covers groups of 1 to 50 employees, while in California, Colorado, New York and Vermont it covers 1 to 100 instead. In Massachusetts, the small group market is the merged market for 1 to 50.
Not for experience rated groups. You shouldn't apply these small group filings to experience rated groups that have 51 or more employees, because those groups get priced on their own claims experience.
A state average, not a quote. Your actual renewal will vary depending on the insurance carrier, health plan, area, age mix and group size.
Requested rates. After 2020 what the CMS figures show are requested (filed) rates, and those aren't always the rates that ended up being approved. The forecast will be scored on that same basis.
Proposed 2027 inputs. There are still 33 states using proposed 2027 rates. So far, in 11 of the 18 states with final rates, the final rates came in below the proposed average. That means when the final rates do arrive, they may pull some of these forecasts down.
Thin evidence at longer horizons. There are only two or three test years behind years four and five, so you should treat 2031 to 2032 as low confidence.
New York. A New York group needs 101 or more FTEs to self fund, move to a level funded plan or join a captive. This is the reason most small groups in New York are on fully insured plans.
Download the data
renewal-forecast-2028-v1.0-preview.csv has the table above, with one row per state and the 2027 source.
MANIFEST.txt lists each version's data file with its SHA-256.
The current file SHA-256 is 244fe629bff505252d6471d6fcfb8adef170c7bc206404d3d378a839c6759d0f.
License. © 2026 Benefitra. Text and Benefitra derived tables are licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). CMS and state data remain under their own terms (CMS Rate Review data, RateReview.HealthCare.gov).
How to cite
Newland, S. (2026). 2028 Small Group Health Insurance Renewal Forecast by State (v1.0-preview, 2026-09-29). Benefitra. https://benefitra.com/renewal-forecast-2028/. DOI pending.
Versions, changelog and corrections
v1.0-preview, 2026-09-29 ET. First preview. 18 states on final 2027 rates, 33 on proposed. Values match the Benefitra funding calculator preview. CSV SHA-256 244fe629bff505252d6471d6fcfb8adef170c7bc206404d3d378a839c6759d0f
Spotted a mistake? Email info@benefitra.com or use the contact page. Every correction gets logged here together with the date, what changed and which numbers moved.
Questions about the 2028 forecast
How much will small group health insurance renewals rise in 2028?
Our forecast for the average state small group renewal in 2028 is 10.7%, enrollment weighted across 50 states and DC. By state it runs from 7.9% in Iowa to 13.5% in New Mexico and Ohio. Each state has a likely range of 3.0 points below to 6.0 points above its forecast.
Why are some states marked Proposed?
In 33 states the 2027 rates are not final yet, so the forecast uses the rates insurers proposed. We update this page weekly until every state's 2027 rates are final. Each update is a new dated version with a changelog.
How will Benefitra check these forecasts?
We freeze one official version before the first 2028 small group filings become public and never edit it. Once CMS publishes the 2028 small group rate filings, we score every state against the actual result and publish the misses along with the hits. We repeat this each year through 2032.
Can I use these numbers as my renewal quote?
No. They are state averages for the small group community rated market, not a quote for any group. Your carrier, plan and group will differ. They do not apply to experience rated groups (51 or more employees in most states), which are priced on their own claims.
Why is the likely range bigger on the upside?
In our backtests every method we tested forecast too low for 2020 to 2026. Actual renewals landed above the forecast more often than below, so the range reaches 6.0 points above the forecast and only 3.0 points below.