PEO 96% chance of beating Fully Insured
$185,173
median five-year savings
+24% expected savings
5th$21,90325th$132,153 75th$219,86795th$251,767
Arizona Health-Plan Funding Guide
Arizona 2027 funding analysis by employer size
Plan year 2027 Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final
Compare your options based on what matters most: Year 1 cost, five-year savings, and the likelihood of outperforming Fully Insured.
10 Employees
10-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with Benefitra's average client savings assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 Arizona market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO96%
Level-Funded82%
Taft-Hartley4%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO $185,173
Level-Funded $159,160
Taft-Hartley −$39,369
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
Level-Funded 82% chance of beating Fully Insured
$159,160
median five-year savings
+16% expected savings
5th−$188,58025th$67,440 75th$197,39295th$222,156
With additional cost containment: $140K to $252K more potential savings; win rate rises to ~97%.
Taft-Hartley 4% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$39,369
median five-year savings
-6% expected savings
5th−$74,77425th−$53,418 75th−$24,66095th−$3,621
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$916 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costPEO · ~28% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianPEO · $185,173
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 10 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 19.87% (proposed, not yet final). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 10.5% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 15.9%.
30 Employees
30-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with Benefitra's average client savings assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 Arizona market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO96%
Level-Funded93%
Self-Funded Captive95%
Taft-Hartley4%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO $555,519
Level-Funded $648,466
Self-Funded Captive $595,434
Taft-Hartley −$118,108
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 96% chance of beating Fully Insured
$555,519
median five-year savings
+24% expected savings
5th$65,70825th$396,458 75th$659,60295th$755,301
Level-Funded 93% chance of beating Fully Insured
$648,466
median five-year savings
+27% expected savings
5th−$130,58025th$451,334 75th$735,32095th$805,419
With additional cost containment: $356K to $564K more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Self-Funded Captive 95% chance of beating Fully Insured
$595,434
median five-year savings
+26% expected savings
5th$22,51825th$433,714 75th$692,07095th$780,199
With additional cost containment: $367K to $524K more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Taft-Hartley 4% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$118,108
median five-year savings
-6% expected savings
5th−$224,32125th−$160,254 75th−$73,98195th−$10,864
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$916 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costPEO · ~28% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianLevel-Funded · $648,466
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 30 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 19.87% (proposed, not yet final). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 10.5% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 15.9%.
70 Employees
70-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with conservative assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 Arizona market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO42%
Level-Funded92%
Self-Funded Captive100%
Taft-Hartley19%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO −$161,308
Level-Funded $392,016
Self-Funded Captive $538,347
Taft-Hartley −$710,685
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 42% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$161,308
median five-year savings
-5% expected savings
5th−$1,645,30525th−$660,052 75th$396,10895th$1,660,634
Level-Funded 92% chance of beating Fully Insured
$392,016
median five-year savings
+11% expected savings
5th−$157,68825th$219,820 75th$687,14595th$1,635,084
With additional cost containment: $967K to $1.42M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Self-Funded Captive 100% chance of beating Fully Insured
$538,347
median five-year savings
+15% expected savings
5th$207,86125th$366,059 75th$840,74695th$1,806,780
With additional cost containment: $942K to $1.25M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Taft-Hartley 19% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$710,685
median five-year savings
-14% expected savings
5th−$1,322,04325th−$1,039,072 75th−$184,84795th$1,055,493
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$916 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costSelf-Funded Captive · ~11% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianSelf-Funded Captive · $538,347
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 70 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 19.87% (proposed, not yet final). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 10.5% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 15.9%.
150 Employees
150-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with conservative assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 Arizona market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO35%
Self-Funded96%
Self-Funded Captive100%
Taft-Hartley23%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO −$715,026
Self-Funded $1,283,216
Self-Funded Captive $1,288,759
Taft-Hartley −$1,411,064
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 35% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$715,026
median five-year savings
-9% expected savings
5th−$4,205,93625th−$1,926,176 75th$571,23195th$3,599,961
Self-Funded 96% chance of beating Fully Insured
$1,283,216
median five-year savings
+15% expected savings
5th$105,54025th$867,758 75th$1,855,26295th$3,641,335
With additional cost containment: $2.03M to $3.10M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Self-Funded Captive 100% chance of beating Fully Insured
$1,288,759
median five-year savings
+16% expected savings
5th$606,83325th$921,796 75th$1,922,57795th$3,890,974
With additional cost containment: $2.04M to $2.70M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Taft-Hartley 23% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$1,411,064
median five-year savings
-13% expected savings
5th−$3,062,05225th−$2,241,697 75th−$185,08395th$2,654,486
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$916 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costSelf-Funded · ~12% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianSelf-Funded Captive · $1,288,759
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 150 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 19.87% (proposed, not yet final). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 10.5% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 15.9%.
250 Employees
250-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with conservative assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 Arizona market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO29%
Self-Funded99%
Self-Funded Captive100%
Taft-Hartley24%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO −$1,912,272
Self-Funded $2,268,604
Self-Funded Captive $2,321,380
Taft-Hartley −$2,298,368
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 29% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$1,912,272
median five-year savings
-14% expected savings
5th−$8,145,86825th−$4,060,781 75th$459,02495th$5,560,258
Self-Funded 99% chance of beating Fully Insured
$2,268,604
median five-year savings
+16% expected savings
5th$870,67525th$1,667,633 75th$3,272,89595th$5,885,180
With additional cost containment: $3.36M to $5.07M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Self-Funded Captive 100% chance of beating Fully Insured
$2,321,380
median five-year savings
+17% expected savings
5th$1,095,31725th$1,665,463 75th$3,440,01695th$6,498,275
With additional cost containment: $3.41M to $4.51M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Taft-Hartley 24% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$2,298,368
median five-year savings
-13% expected savings
5th−$5,257,27725th−$3,738,759 75th−$110,00495th$4,953,670
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$916 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costSelf-Funded · ~12% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianSelf-Funded Captive · $2,321,380
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 250 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 19.87% (proposed, not yet final). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 10.5% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 15.9%.
500 Employees
500-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with conservative assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 Arizona market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO26%
Self-Funded100%
Self-Funded Captive100%
Taft-Hartley20%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO −$3,781,701
Self-Funded $4,377,829
Self-Funded Captive $4,388,090
Taft-Hartley −$4,471,851
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 26% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$3,781,701
median five-year savings
-15% expected savings
5th−$16,181,23925th−$7,692,425 75th$147,60795th$7,577,940
Self-Funded 100% chance of beating Fully Insured
$4,377,829
median five-year savings
+16% expected savings
5th$1,963,49025th$3,206,462 75th$6,329,43595th$11,497,625
With additional cost containment: $6.78M to $8.83M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Self-Funded Captive 100% chance of beating Fully Insured
$4,388,090
median five-year savings
+16% expected savings
5th$2,090,73925th$3,176,956 75th$6,388,21395th$11,749,616
With additional cost containment: $6.83M to $8.27M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Taft-Hartley 20% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$4,471,851
median five-year savings
-13% expected savings
5th−$9,628,83525th−$7,070,245 75th−$1,195,78895th$5,780,816
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$916 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costSelf-Funded · ~12% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianSelf-Funded Captive · $4,388,090
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 500 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 19.87% (proposed, not yet final). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 10.5% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 15.9%.
2026 analysis vs 2027
For 70-employee groups in Arizona, the modeled median five-year savings for Self-Funded Captive moved from $469,995 to $538,347, and its modeled chance of beating Fully Insured stayed at 100%.
| Employees | PEO | Level-Funded | Self-Funded | Self-Funded Captive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | $114,248 → $185,17393% → 96% odds | $92,957 → $159,16078% → 82% odds | Not modeled | Not modeled |
| 30 | $342,745 → $555,51993% → 96% odds | $420,533 → $648,46689% → 93% odds | Not modeled | $384,961 → $595,43492% → 95% odds |
| 70 | −$134,569 → −$161,30842% → 42% odds | $327,034 → $392,01692% → 92% odds | Not modeled | $469,995 → $538,347100% → 100% odds |
| 150 | −$596,502 → −$715,02635% → 35% odds | Not modeled | $1,070,506 → $1,283,21696% → 96% odds | $1,119,887 → $1,288,759100% → 100% odds |
| 250 | −$1,595,288 → −$1,912,27229% → 29% odds | Not modeled | $1,892,554 → $2,268,60499% → 99% odds | $2,011,175 → $2,321,380100% → 100% odds |
| 500 | −$3,154,836 → −$3,781,70126% → 26% odds | Not modeled | $3,652,147 → $4,377,829100% → 100% odds | $3,809,894 → $4,388,090100% → 100% odds |
Fully Insured baseline used: $765 → $916 per employee per month (PY2026 rates → PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final). Taft-Hartley is priced as a fixed nationwide rate rather than a state-rate model, so it is not compared here.
View the archived 2026 Arizona analysis (last year's model results, not current advice).
Illustrative model results, not a quote, a forecast or insurance, tax or legal advice. Actual premiums, claims, eligibility and underwriting vary by employer, and PY2027 requested (filed) rates can change before they are final.
Ready to make this specific to your company?
Use your own data or speak with a Benefitra advisor.