PEO 93% chance of beating Fully Insured
$160,398
median five-year savings
+19% expected savings
5th−$30,41125th$99,009 75th$200,82195th$237,287
California Health-Plan Funding Guide
California 2027 funding analysis by employer size
Plan year 2027 Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final
Compare your options based on what matters most: Year 1 cost, five-year savings, and the likelihood of outperforming Fully Insured.
10 Employees
10-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with Benefitra's average client savings assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 California market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO93%
Level-Funded79%
Taft-Hartley82%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO $160,398
Level-Funded $135,962
Taft-Hartley $20,235
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
Level-Funded 79% chance of beating Fully Insured
$135,962
median five-year savings
+10% expected savings
5th−$267,03825th$28,186 75th$180,21095th$207,599
With additional cost containment: $163K to $292K more potential savings; win rate rises to ~95%.
Taft-Hartley 82% chance of beating Fully Insured
$20,235
median five-year savings
+3% expected savings
5th−$17,41325th$5,720 75th$35,98295th$58,940
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$1,073 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costPEO · ~28% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianPEO · $160,398
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 10 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 9.46% (proposed, not yet final). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 6.8% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 7.8%.
30 Employees
30-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with Benefitra's average client savings assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 California market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO93%
Level-Funded90%
Self-Funded Captive92%
Taft-Hartley82%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO $481,195
Level-Funded $605,330
Self-Funded Captive $535,674
Taft-Hartley $60,704
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 93% chance of beating Fully Insured
$481,195
median five-year savings
+19% expected savings
5th−$91,23425th$297,027 75th$602,46495th$711,860
Level-Funded 90% chance of beating Fully Insured
$605,330
median five-year savings
+22% expected savings
5th−$296,55325th$377,507 75th$705,29895th$786,819
With additional cost containment: $413K to $654K more potential savings; win rate rises to ~99%.
Self-Funded Captive 92% chance of beating Fully Insured
$535,674
median five-year savings
+20% expected savings
5th−$132,31025th$347,265 75th$645,94795th$749,340
With additional cost containment: $428K to $611K more potential savings; win rate rises to ~99%.
Taft-Hartley 82% chance of beating Fully Insured
$60,704
median five-year savings
+3% expected savings
5th−$52,24025th$17,159 75th$107,94595th$176,819
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$1,073 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costPEO · ~28% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianLevel-Funded · $605,330
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 30 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 9.46% (proposed, not yet final). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 6.8% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 7.8%.
70 Employees
70-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with conservative assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 California market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO50%
Level-Funded82%
Self-Funded Captive89%
Taft-Hartley82%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO $5,642
Level-Funded $786,166
Self-Funded Captive $859,699
Taft-Hartley $141,642
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 50% chance of beating Fully Insured
$5,642
median five-year savings
-4% expected savings
5th−$1,708,78925th−$526,470 75th$354,64295th$660,950
Level-Funded 82% chance of beating Fully Insured
$786,166
median five-year savings
+10% expected savings
5th−$1,313,39625th$299,028 75th$1,031,35395th$1,289,128
With additional cost containment: $1.12M to $1.65M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~97%.
Self-Funded Captive 89% chance of beating Fully Insured
$859,699
median five-year savings
+14% expected savings
5th−$507,77925th$461,051 75th$1,118,95695th$1,409,092
With additional cost containment: $1.10M to $1.45M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~99%.
Taft-Hartley 82% chance of beating Fully Insured
$141,642
median five-year savings
+3% expected savings
5th−$121,89425th$40,038 75th$251,87295th$412,578
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$1,073 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costSelf-Funded Captive · ~11% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianSelf-Funded Captive · $859,699
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 70 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 9.46% (proposed, not yet final). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 6.8% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 7.8%.
150 Employees
150-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with conservative assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 California market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO33%
Self-Funded96%
Self-Funded Captive100%
Taft-Hartley52%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO −$934,092
Self-Funded $1,513,770
Self-Funded Captive $1,475,541
Taft-Hartley $85,355
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 33% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$934,092
median five-year savings
-10% expected savings
5th−$4,999,66625th−$2,340,866 75th$537,97995th$4,005,720
Self-Funded 96% chance of beating Fully Insured
$1,513,770
median five-year savings
+15% expected savings
5th$197,82425th$1,058,100 75th$2,133,46995th$4,009,762
With additional cost containment: $2.35M to $3.59M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Self-Funded Captive 100% chance of beating Fully Insured
$1,475,541
median five-year savings
+16% expected savings
5th$727,05925th$1,074,021 75th$2,169,47795th$4,281,891
With additional cost containment: $2.37M to $3.14M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Taft-Hartley 52% chance of beating Fully Insured
$85,355
median five-year savings
+3% expected savings
5th−$1,775,66325th−$835,335 75th$1,466,96995th$4,726,798
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$1,073 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costSelf-Funded · ~12% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianSelf-Funded · $1,513,770
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 150 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 9.46% (proposed, not yet final). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 6.8% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 7.8%.
250 Employees
250-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with conservative assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 California market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO27%
Self-Funded99%
Self-Funded Captive100%
Taft-Hartley53%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO −$2,401,401
Self-Funded $2,667,421
Self-Funded Captive $2,644,178
Taft-Hartley $223,281
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 27% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$2,401,401
median five-year savings
-15% expected savings
5th−$9,618,95325th−$4,915,183 75th$289,99095th$6,148,765
Self-Funded 99% chance of beating Fully Insured
$2,667,421
median five-year savings
+16% expected savings
5th$1,133,18225th$2,014,131 75th$3,732,58295th$6,495,682
With additional cost containment: $3.90M to $5.87M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Self-Funded Captive 100% chance of beating Fully Insured
$2,644,178
median five-year savings
+16% expected savings
5th$1,296,81825th$1,924,811 75th$3,884,67795th$7,224,196
With additional cost containment: $3.97M to $5.25M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Taft-Hartley 53% chance of beating Fully Insured
$223,281
median five-year savings
+3% expected savings
5th−$3,166,88525th−$1,439,347 75th$2,679,63695th$8,423,759
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$1,073 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costSelf-Funded · ~12% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianSelf-Funded · $2,667,421
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 250 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 9.46% (proposed, not yet final). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 6.8% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 7.8%.
500 Employees
500-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with conservative assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 California market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO24%
Self-Funded100%
Self-Funded Captive100%
Taft-Hartley55%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO −$4,702,977
Self-Funded $5,157,968
Self-Funded Captive $5,010,366
Taft-Hartley $572,885
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 24% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$4,702,977
median five-year savings
-16% expected savings
5th−$19,167,93025th−$9,285,923 75th−$314,06195th$8,118,369
Self-Funded 100% chance of beating Fully Insured
$5,157,968
median five-year savings
+16% expected savings
5th$2,500,44725th$3,883,969 75th$7,261,16495th$12,712,723
With additional cost containment: $7.87M to $10.24M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Self-Funded Captive 100% chance of beating Fully Insured
$5,010,366
median five-year savings
+15% expected savings
5th$2,486,33125th$3,668,251 75th$7,154,15695th$12,983,155
With additional cost containment: $7.96M to $9.63M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Taft-Hartley 55% chance of beating Fully Insured
$572,885
median five-year savings
+2% expected savings
5th−$5,211,07125th−$2,373,015 75th$4,303,66895th$12,043,596
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$1,073 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costSelf-Funded · ~12% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianSelf-Funded · $5,157,968
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 500 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 9.46% (proposed, not yet final). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 6.8% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 7.8%.
2026 analysis vs 2027
For 70-employee groups in California, the modeled median five-year savings for Self-Funded Captive moved from $629,570 to $859,699, and its modeled chance of beating Fully Insured moved from 85% to 89%.
| Employees | PEO | Level-Funded | Self-Funded | Self-Funded Captive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | $122,717 → $160,39890% → 93% odds | $100,356 → $135,96275% → 79% odds | Not modeled | Not modeled |
| 30 | $368,150 → $481,19590% → 93% odds | $481,723 → $605,33088% → 90% odds | Not modeled | $421,613 → $535,67490% → 92% odds |
| 70 | −$161,643 → $5,64237% → 50% odds | $553,595 → $786,16678% → 82% odds | Not modeled | $629,570 → $859,69985% → 89% odds |
| 150 | −$853,364 → −$934,09233% → 33% odds | Not modeled | $1,382,944 → $1,513,77096% → 96% odds | $1,371,353 → $1,475,541100% → 100% odds |
| 250 | −$2,193,861 → −$2,401,40127% → 27% odds | Not modeled | $2,436,891 → $2,667,42199% → 99% odds | $2,454,548 → $2,644,178100% → 100% odds |
| 500 | −$4,296,526 → −$4,702,97724% → 24% odds | Not modeled | $4,712,194 → $5,157,968100% → 100% odds | $4,655,131 → $5,010,366100% → 100% odds |
Fully Insured baseline used: $981 → $1,073 per employee per month (PY2026 rates → PY2027 requested (filed) rates, not yet final). Taft-Hartley is priced as a fixed nationwide rate rather than a state-rate model, so it is not compared here.
View the archived 2026 California analysis (last year's model results, not current advice).
Illustrative model results, not a quote, a forecast or insurance, tax or legal advice. Actual premiums, claims, eligibility and underwriting vary by employer, and PY2027 requested (filed) rates can change before they are final.
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Use your own data or speak with a Benefitra advisor.