PEO 95% chance of beating Fully Insured
$187,234
median five-year savings
+23% expected savings
5th$9,72425th$129,526 75th$224,83295th$259,297
Oregon Health-Plan Funding Guide
Oregon 2027 funding analysis by employer size
Plan year 2027 Rates used: PY2027 final rates
Compare your options based on what matters most: Year 1 cost, five-year savings, and the likelihood of outperforming Fully Insured.
10 Employees
10-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with Benefitra's average client savings assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 Oregon market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO95%
Level-Funded80%
Taft-Hartley62%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO $187,234
Level-Funded $143,605
Taft-Hartley $6,504
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
Level-Funded 80% chance of beating Fully Insured
$143,605
median five-year savings
+12% expected savings
5th−$248,08625th$39,103 75th$186,91995th$214,066
With additional cost containment: $156K to $283K more potential savings; win rate rises to ~95%.
Taft-Hartley 62% chance of beating Fully Insured
$6,504
median five-year savings
+1% expected savings
5th−$30,43025th−$7,841 75th$21,92995th$44,385
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$998 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 final rates$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costPEO · ~28% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianPEO · $187,234
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 10 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 15.5% (final, per Oregon Division of Financial Regulation orders). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 9.5% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 13.4%.
30 Employees
30-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with Benefitra's average client savings assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 Oregon market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO95%
Level-Funded90%
Self-Funded Captive93%
Taft-Hartley62%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO $561,701
Level-Funded $620,760
Self-Funded Captive $553,740
Taft-Hartley $19,511
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 95% chance of beating Fully Insured
$561,701
median five-year savings
+23% expected savings
5th$29,17325th$388,578 75th$674,49795th$777,890
Level-Funded 90% chance of beating Fully Insured
$620,760
median five-year savings
+23% expected savings
5th−$253,16525th$399,250 75th$718,81395th$797,762
With additional cost containment: $398K to $633K more potential savings; win rate rises to ~99%.
Self-Funded Captive 93% chance of beating Fully Insured
$553,740
median five-year savings
+22% expected savings
5th−$84,31025th$374,317 75th$661,15295th$762,009
With additional cost containment: $414K to $586K more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Taft-Hartley 62% chance of beating Fully Insured
$19,511
median five-year savings
+1% expected savings
5th−$91,29125th−$23,523 75th$65,78795th$133,154
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$998 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 final rates$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costPEO · ~28% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianLevel-Funded · $620,760
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 30 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 15.5% (final, per Oregon Division of Financial Regulation orders). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 9.5% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 13.4%.
70 Employees
70-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with conservative assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 Oregon market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO47%
Level-Funded89%
Self-Funded Captive99%
Taft-Hartley40%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO −$74,786
Level-Funded $397,644
Self-Funded Captive $550,601
Taft-Hartley −$206,026
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 47% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$74,786
median five-year savings
-2% expected savings
5th−$1,715,73425th−$612,276 75th$598,95995th$2,158,050
Level-Funded 89% chance of beating Fully Insured
$397,644
median five-year savings
+11% expected savings
5th−$267,07625th$181,717 75th$813,58695th$2,092,169
With additional cost containment: $1.09M to $1.59M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Self-Funded Captive 99% chance of beating Fully Insured
$550,601
median five-year savings
+14% expected savings
5th$124,39325th$325,528 75th$965,04395th$2,360,212
With additional cost containment: $1.06M to $1.40M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Taft-Hartley 40% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$206,026
median five-year savings
-2% expected savings
5th−$940,35625th−$603,947 75th$434,12295th$2,020,676
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$998 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 final rates$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costSelf-Funded Captive · ~11% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianSelf-Funded Captive · $550,601
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 70 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 15.5% (final, per Oregon Division of Financial Regulation orders). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 9.5% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 13.4%.
150 Employees
150-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with conservative assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 Oregon market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO40%
Self-Funded94%
Self-Funded Captive100%
Taft-Hartley42%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO −$532,139
Self-Funded $1,375,110
Self-Funded Captive $1,344,612
Taft-Hartley −$308,764
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 40% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$532,139
median five-year savings
-7% expected savings
5th−$4,378,63725th−$1,900,176 75th$949,93695th$4,796,072
Self-Funded 94% chance of beating Fully Insured
$1,375,110
median five-year savings
+15% expected savings
5th−$93,59325th$836,234 75th$2,168,41895th$4,707,537
With additional cost containment: $2.27M to $3.49M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Self-Funded Captive 100% chance of beating Fully Insured
$1,344,612
median five-year savings
+15% expected savings
5th$448,44825th$860,311 75th$2,220,74695th$4,936,407
With additional cost containment: $2.29M to $3.04M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Taft-Hartley 42% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$308,764
median five-year savings
-1% expected savings
5th−$2,260,46825th−$1,296,411 75th$1,205,32495th$4,738,816
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$998 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 final rates$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costSelf-Funded · ~12% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianSelf-Funded · $1,375,110
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 150 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 15.5% (final, per Oregon Division of Financial Regulation orders). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 9.5% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 13.4%.
250 Employees
250-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with conservative assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 Oregon market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO34%
Self-Funded98%
Self-Funded Captive100%
Taft-Hartley46%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO −$1,625,131
Self-Funded $2,451,281
Self-Funded Captive $2,469,684
Taft-Hartley −$402,546
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 34% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$1,625,131
median five-year savings
-11% expected savings
5th−$8,497,86125th−$4,097,749 75th$1,167,84095th$7,257,200
Self-Funded 98% chance of beating Fully Insured
$2,451,281
median five-year savings
+16% expected savings
5th$613,45425th$1,653,377 75th$3,804,70695th$7,534,162
With additional cost containment: $3.77M to $5.69M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Self-Funded Captive 100% chance of beating Fully Insured
$2,469,684
median five-year savings
+16% expected savings
5th$866,35225th$1,627,546 75th$3,980,13495th$7,984,597
With additional cost containment: $3.84M to $5.06M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Taft-Hartley 46% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$402,546
median five-year savings
-1% expected savings
5th−$3,917,94425th−$2,148,087 75th$2,093,32395th$8,095,135
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$998 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 final rates$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costSelf-Funded · ~12% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianSelf-Funded Captive · $2,469,684
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 250 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 15.5% (final, per Oregon Division of Financial Regulation orders). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 9.5% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 13.4%.
500 Employees
500-employee funding analysis · 2027
Modeled with conservative assumptions, 2,000 Monte Carlo runs, and 2027 Oregon market rates.
Choose another size ↑Blackwell underwriter reviewed and validated
Chance of beating Fully Insured over 5 years
PEO31%
Self-Funded100%
Self-Funded Captive100%
Taft-Hartley44%
Five-year median savings versus staying Fully Insured
PEO −$3,239,469
Self-Funded $4,745,413
Self-Funded Captive $4,612,781
Taft-Hartley −$799,015
5th to 95th percentile 25th to 75th Median
PEO 31% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$3,239,469
median five-year savings
-12% expected savings
5th−$16,723,83825th−$7,668,578 75th$1,217,25595th$10,872,415
Self-Funded 100% chance of beating Fully Insured
$4,745,413
median five-year savings
+16% expected savings
5th$1,524,76425th$3,148,536 75th$7,376,68895th$14,749,040
With additional cost containment: $7.60M to $9.93M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Self-Funded Captive 100% chance of beating Fully Insured
$4,612,781
median five-year savings
+15% expected savings
5th$1,615,42725th$3,047,594 75th$7,280,20795th$14,840,923
With additional cost containment: $7.68M to $9.32M more potential savings; win rate rises to ~100%.
Taft-Hartley 44% chance of beating Fully Insured
−$799,015
median five-year savings
-1% expected savings
5th−$6,850,06725th−$3,799,702 75th$3,245,56895th$11,912,544
Fixed · nationwide · transparent pricing Get your Taft-Hartley rate →
Fully Insured today: ~$998 per employee/month is the baseline. Every savings figure above is measured against it.Rates used: PY2027 final rates$0 saved
Day-one and five-year context
Lowest modeled day-one costSelf-Funded · ~12% cheaper
Highest modeled five-year medianSelf-Funded · $4,745,413
These are separate measures, not a recommendation or a single “best” pick. Probability, downside range, eligibility, administration, and risk tolerance also matter.
Cost containment: Reference-Based Pricing · Cash Pay · Centers of Excellence · Specialty Rx Management · Care Navigation · High-Cost Dialysis Carve-Out · Direct Primary Care. Most strategies do not affect employees’ provider access or care.
Illustrative profile: Average age (~42), average health, state-adjusted premium, and approximately 500 enrolled employees. Actual quotes and underwriting can materially change results.
2027 renewal assumption: 2027 small-group filed rate 15.5% (final, per Oregon Division of Financial Regulation orders). Fully-insured renewal expectation used here: 9.5% a year over five years (six-year filed average incl. 2027); next 1 to 3 years 13.4%.
2026 analysis vs 2027
For 70-employee groups in Oregon, the modeled median five-year savings for Self-Funded Captive moved from $493,620 to $550,601, and its modeled chance of beating Fully Insured stayed at 99%.
| Employees | PEO | Level-Funded | Self-Funded | Self-Funded Captive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | $132,716 → $187,23493% → 95% odds | $94,749 → $143,60576% → 80% odds | Not modeled | Not modeled |
| 30 | $398,149 → $561,70193% → 95% odds | $449,815 → $620,76088% → 90% odds | Not modeled | $398,256 → $553,74091% → 93% odds |
| 70 | −$64,750 → −$74,78647% → 47% odds | $344,280 → $397,64489% → 89% odds | Not modeled | $493,620 → $550,60199% → 99% odds |
| 150 | −$460,726 → −$532,13940% → 40% odds | Not modeled | $1,190,572 → $1,375,11094% → 94% odds | $1,200,400 → $1,344,612100% → 100% odds |
| 250 | −$1,407,040 → −$1,625,13134% → 34% odds | Not modeled | $2,122,321 → $2,451,28198% → 98% odds | $2,198,644 → $2,469,684100% → 100% odds |
| 500 | −$2,804,735 → −$3,239,46931% → 31% odds | Not modeled | $4,108,583 → $4,745,413100% → 100% odds | $4,114,529 → $4,612,781100% → 100% odds |
Fully Insured baseline used: $864 → $998 per employee per month (PY2026 rates → PY2027 final rates). Taft-Hartley is priced as a fixed nationwide rate rather than a state-rate model, so it is not compared here.
View the archived 2026 Oregon analysis (last year's model results, not current advice).
Illustrative model results, not a quote, a forecast or insurance, tax or legal advice. Actual premiums, claims, eligibility and underwriting vary by employer, and the rates used here may differ from the rates an employer is quoted.
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